Is this a good staking schedule?

[Muffins]

Basically there are 2 options u can do going to the duel arena

1.) waste 8-16 hours of life each day odds staking for profit

2.) blast your dub step music and yolo the cash stack

 

Odds staking? What is that?

[Caesar]

When I used to stake I had a theory I used to use.

The following stakes;

1. I'd stake about 1M first, just to get started.

2-4. Continue with small stakes.

5. If the previous stakes were Losses, I'd bet 5-10M.

6. I'd usually go 5-10M again if I Won/Lost.

7. If the past 2-3 stakes were Won. I'd stake 500k-1M stakes hoping that I'd lose.

8. Once I lost 2-3 stakes, I'd stake 5-10M again. Repeating this process. 

 

Since it's 50/50, if you lost the previous stake you'll most likely win the next stake. However their are a number of factors to consider.

-Your odds/Opponent odds. If you're opponent has lost a few stakes in a row, they'll most likely win. This is the hard part, because unless you've had a session with them you don't really know. If you watch certain names, you'll see their chats increase from 'Whip-2M' to 'Whip 4M' so you can assume they most likely just won. I'd stake these people.

 

-The odds theory.

First stake is (1/2). To win two stakes in a row it's (1/2)*(1/2) which is (1/4).

 

To win;

3 Stakes in a row (1/8)

4 stakes in a row (1/16)

5 stakes in a row (1/32)

6 stakes in a row (1/64)

7 stakes in a row (1/128)

8 stakes in a row (1/256)

9 stakes in a row  (1/512)

 

So obviously if you get lucky and win 3 stakes in a row, the next stake you have a (1/16) chance of winning. I've won 8 stakes in a row, and have also lost 8 stakes in a row. From my experience I'd stay away from the arena, unless it's a one off thing. I used this theory and went from 21M to 180M, and 3M to 250M over 8 hours, and 6 hours. I ended up losing the first 180M, losing 8 stakes in a row, and sold 100M of the 250M and lost the remaining 150M. To make money of the arena you need to know when to cash out and leave. For me personally it was way too addicting and destroyed my Runescape experience. 

[Volta]

Shit guys... this is scary

 

I really want to make a lot of gp... But I don't want to go broke either.

I have pretty good self control too so at some point I probably will cool down and sell a good portion of gp and just come back in a month or whatever.

 

I don't really have time to no life so hopefully I don't trigger the system to start dishing out those harsh losses =(.

[Arctic]

Safe to say staking doesn't sound like the thing for you since you are a risk averse person.

[brandonmw420]

To address this theory. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_ruin 

 

TL:DR, you'll go broke. 

[NoahTheWeebWolf]

Safe to say staking doesn't sound like the thing for you since you are a risk averse person.

I wouldn't say I absolutely avoid risk(Is not following ambition and accomplishing your dreams/overcoming adversity as I have in my life not inherently risky)?

I won't do dumb risk like fuck a random stranger without a condom.

I will, however, take a chance to profit if I have done my research on the profitability of a proposition and have done my due diligence to minimize as many risk as possible so that the benefits exceed the cost and my chances of arriving at success are maximized. Basically if the cost exceeds the benefits I won't do it. If the benefits exceed the cost, then I will get on that shit. This isn't purely in monetary terms, either as there is most definitely a moral component and other considerations that also tend to influence my decisions in terms of the potential gains/losses of money.

 

IIt's like the saying goes you can't have a piece of coal turn into a diamond without applying pressure(adversity/struggle/hard work etc). Similarly, you can't make something out of nothing and in the case of money, you can't just sit on a pile of assets and expect them to grow without making some use of them somehow towards a desirable end game where you leave with more than you came in with.

That said I might get more into marching although it's hard since I haven't really followed the market trends of runescape closely(If I had more time, and it didn't interfere with my studies id probably be a regular Donald Trump minus the bigotry, crappy hair piece, fat, ex-wives...etc). Anyways I am not even sure if I am going to follow through as deeply with staking as I initially thought(since you all had such scary experiences at some point). For now id be happy if I could just buy a used ps4 come Christmas time/Black friday. After that I don't think I am going to need as much gp.

 

Holy fuck I wrote a lot. Only I could turn a thread about gambling into Noah's Philosophy hour lol.

[Arctic]

I wouldn't say I absolutely avoid risk(Is not following ambition and accomplishing your dreams/overcoming adversity as I have in my life not inherently risky)?

I won't do dumb risk like fuck a random stranger without a condom.

I will, however, take a chance to profit if I have done my research on the profitability of a proposition and have done my due diligence to minimize as many risk as possible so that the benefits exceed the cost and my chances of arriving at success are maximized. Basically if the cost exceeds the benefits I won't do it. If the benefits exceed the cost, then I will get on that shit. This isn't purely in monetary terms, either as there is most definitely a moral component and other considerations that also tend to influence my decisions in terms of the potential gains/losses of money.

 

IIt's like the saying goes you can't have a piece of coal turn into a diamond without applying pressure(adversity/struggle/hard work etc). Similarly, you can't make something out of nothing and in the case of money, you can't just sit on a pile of assets and expect them to grow without making some use of them somehow towards a desirable end game where you leave with more than you came in with.

That said I might get more into marching although it's hard since I haven't really followed the market trends of runescape closely(If I had more time, and it didn't interfere with my studies id probably be a regular Donald Trump minus the bigotry, crappy hair piece, fat, ex-wives...etc). Anyways I am not even sure if I am going to follow through as deeply with staking as I initially thought(since you all had such scary experiences at some point). For now id be happy if I could just buy a used ps4 come Christmas time/Black friday. After that I don't think I am going to need as much gp.

 

Holy fuck I wrote a lot. Only I could turn a thread about gambling into Noah's Philosophy hour lol.

 

Yeah but the risk involved in turning your runescape money in to a really big cash stack through staking lies somewhere between the general risk in a share market and the risk of gambling. Which it seems like your tendency to accept risk is very close to share market risk than staking risk.

[NoahTheWeebWolf]

Yeah but the risk involved in turning your runescape money in to a really big cash stack through staking lies somewhere between the general risk in a share market and the risk of gambling. Which it seems like your tendency to accept risk is very close to share market risk than staking risk.

Point taken but if anything that more refined cautious form of risk taking will just help me walk away sooner from staking when the time is right as opposed to impulsively pissing away all my cash like a true gambler would.

[GoEasyLmNew]

Since it's 50/50, if you lost the previous stake you'll most likely win the next stake. However their are a number of factors to consider.

-Your odds/Opponent odds. If you're opponent has lost a few stakes in a row, they'll most likely win.

 

 

 

You shouldn't think like this, if you lose 10 stakes in a row, your chances of winning haven't increased, it's still a 50% chance you will lose.

 

Jagex don't grant you better hits the next stake just because last stake you weren't hitting as much as your opponent...

Edited October 8, 2015 by GoEasyLmNew

[Lemons]

You shouldn't think like this, if you lose 10 stakes in a row, your chances of winning hasn't increased, it's still a 50% chance you will lose.

 

Jagex don't grant you better hits the next stake just because last stake you weren't hitting as much as your opponent...

 

You are correct, this is straight up Gambler's Fallacy.

[Dieze]

Technically it is 50/50 staking, however streaks are a common occurrence. In 100 stakes yeah you should win close to 50 but within those 100 stakes. You'll more than likely hit an 8 win or 8 loss streak

[Okabe]

nah its like 1,24$ but i only made 0,000002467$ profit per win.

 

so it means i lost 11 times in a row.

 

Time for some math

 

the math below is based on the Martingale betting system.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingale_(betting_system)

 

 

Odds

 

Numbers:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1b_2yBtc9ZsqDH0Sycbd74mdemQB6-gqUVq_eMqM6psc/edit?usp=sharing

 

Graph:

 

Explanation of math: https://www.khanacademy.org/math/precalculus/prob_comb/independent_events_precalc/v/getting-at-least-one-heads

 

Cost

if you do the Martingale using a 1m initial value.

 

to counter a 4 in a row loss streak you need 31m (note this includes money needed for the 5th bet to recover)

to counter a 8 in a row loss streak you need 511m (note this includes money needed for the 9th bet to recover)

to counter a 14 in a row loss streak you need 32767m (note this includes money needed for the 15th bet to recover)

 

TL;DR :

Martingale always works if you have infinite wealth but since you don't you will lose your bank.

Edited October 8, 2015 by Okabe

[dtd]

nah its like 1,24$ but i only made 0,000002467$ profit per win.

 

so it means i lost 11 times in a row.

 

Time for some math

 

the math below is based on the Martingale betting system.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingale_(betting_system)

 

 

Odds

 

Numbers:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1b_2yBtc9ZsqDH0Sycbd74mdemQB6-gqUVq_eMqM6psc/edit?usp=sharing

 

Graph:

 

Explanation of math: https://www.khanacademy.org/math/precalculus/prob_comb/independent_events_precalc/v/getting-at-least-one-heads

 

Cost

if you do the Martingale using a 1m initial value.

 

to counter a 4 in a row loss streak you need 81m

to counter a 8 in a row loss streak you need 6561m

to counter a 15 in a row loss streak you need 4782969m

 

TL;DR :

Martingale always works if you have infinite wealth but since you don't you will lose your bank.

 

Yeah speaking from first hand experience, it really doesn't work haha

 

[NoahTheWeebWolf]

nah its like 1,24$ but i only made 0,000002467$ profit per win.

 

so it means i lost 11 times in a row.

 

Time for some math

 

the math below is based on the Martingale betting system.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingale_(betting_system)

 

 

Odds

 

Numbers:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1b_2yBtc9ZsqDH0Sycbd74mdemQB6-gqUVq_eMqM6psc/edit?usp=sharing

 

Graph:

 

Explanation of math: https://www.khanacademy.org/math/precalculus/prob_comb/independent_events_precalc/v/getting-at-least-one-heads

 

Cost

if you do the Martingale using a 1m initial value.

 

to counter a 4 in a row loss streak you need 81m

to counter a 8 in a row loss streak you need 6561m

to counter a 15 in a row loss streak you need 4782969m

 

TL;DR :

Martingale always works if you have infinite wealth but since you don't you will lose your bank.

Thank you for the detailed answer.

However, I am not sure about the math of the cost. 8 in a row loss streak is more like 255m(to make eight consecutive bets) not 6.5 billion.

The whole thing bums me out. I mean no, I am not trying to do this as a form of income I just really want to make at least 300m, which would then be sold and used to get a used ps4. I have pretty good self-control, so I am never going to bet my entire bank at once nor will I keep this up too long as cool as it would be to be extremely lucky at duel arena.

even though I have at least 200m currently I really don't want to sell my entire current bank since I still want to have a decent time in rs07 too.

[Okabe]

Thank you for the detailed answer.

However, I am not sure about the math of the cost. 8 in a row loss streak is more like 255m(to make eight consecutive bets) not 6.5 billion.

The whole thing bums me out. I mean no, I am not trying to do this as a form of income I just really want to make at least 300m, which would then be sold and used to get a used ps4. I have pretty good self-control, so I am never going to bet my entire bank at once nor will I keep this up too long as cool as it would be to be extremely lucky at duel arena.

even though I have at least 200m currently I really don't want to sell my entire current bank since I still want to have a decent time in rs07 too.

 

I have indeed made a small error in my calculations multiplying the total cost instead of the bet.

 

here is the correct calculation.