Some thoughts on bond prices

[Probability]

I think most botters would be familiar with the upward trend of bond prices over the past few years.

http://services.runescape.com/m=itemdb_oldschool/viewitem?obj=13190

I believe that this trend is set to continue.

i) Bond prices aren't yet high enough to price many bots out of the market. i.e. the bond cost still low enough for many methods to be viable.

ii) Cheap osrs gold by definition allows players to buy more of it for each dollar they spend. This inflates the osrs value of items in game for which supply doesn't increase by the same amount. One good example of this is bonds.

iii) Issues in many poverty stricken nations are becoming worse. As such, their citizens have little choice but to turn to online games to earn dollars which are often more in demand than their respective national currencies.

 

Anyone have a counter-thesis?

 

 

Edited October 1, 2019 by Probability

[BuyingHardcores]

If you buy bonds from Jagex to bot I'm worried

[Kramnik]

iv) They ended the trick where you could get unlimited free memberships for your bots  

[ez11]

Bonds prices jumped up because people who farmed with mobile free membership tried out p2p with bonds and currently is just not the time of the year with most legit players buying bonds. Prices will go down again after christmas.

Also the big jump from the 2.5-3m prices we used to have to what we have now is because jagex increased membership and bond prices.

[Probability]

20 hours ago, BuyingHardcores said:

If you buy bonds from Jagex to bot I'm worried

I don't...but the thread never spoke of this...not sure what to say?

19 hours ago, Kramnik said:

iv) They ended the trick where you could get unlimited free memberships for your bots  

You mean twitch? Yes very much so!  Although the longer term trend started before even that.

19 hours ago, ez11 said:

Bonds prices jumped up because people who farmed with mobile free membership tried out p2p with bonds and currently is just not the time of the year with most legit players buying bonds. Prices will go down again after christmas.

Also the big jump from the 2.5-3m prices we used to have to what we have now is because jagex increased membership and bond prices.

Great points!

[Kramnik]

26 minutes ago, Probability said:

I don't...but the thread never spoke of this...not sure what to say?

You mean twitch? Yes very much so!  Although the longer term trend started before even that.

Great points!

Also note that they are always rising before christmas and fall before summer  

[BuyingHardcores]

2 hours ago, Probability said:

I don't...but the thread never spoke of this...not sure what to say?

You mean twitch? Yes very much so!  Although the longer term trend started before even that.

Great points!

I must've read it wrong mb.

[Probability]

7 hours ago, BuyingHardcores said:

I must've read it wrong mb.

All good!

[tarxan]

i mean mills are about 60c/mill so bond prices arent that high

[Juggles]

Gold price and Bond price are inversely related. Simple as that 

[caketeaparty]

The average player has something like 30m in net wealth, and gp will be worth less and less the more alchables enter the game. There simply aren't enough goldsinks that are enticing enough to the majority of players to offset gold injection. Unlike other MMOs, Runescape is absolutely abysmal at keeping its economy in check. I wouldn't be surprised if Bonds eventually hit 10m each, in fact I think it's inevitable. However, Bond prices will crash again as is the trend at the beginning of November. Free Twitch mems will be the main catalyst for this, although the Premier Club promo also factors in because each Bond will be worth more days of membership. The lowest Bonds will crash should be around 3.5m.

[justselling1acc]

I agree with your assumptions that bond prices will continue to rise. I don't see a reason as of now for them to not slowly rise every year...