So I never really thought about this before, but now that I'm taking a course in probability it seems to have popped up in my mind Lets say I have a 1/10000 chance of getting a draconic visage when killing kbd. How many times would I have to kill the kbd in order to have a 50% chance of obtaining a visage.

 

Originally I would have thought, 5000 times because it's half of 10000, but that's wrong because I could then extend that logic and say if I killed the kbd 10,000 times then I would have a 100% chance of getting a visage.

 

So how exactly do you calculate something like this?

 

 

 

 

Edit: Alright, it looks like my question wasn't really clear enough. I can rephrase it to a simpler example. If I flip a coin n amount of times, how would I calculate the chances of me getting heads ATLEAST once. This would be a simple case of the draconic visage. Where heads is getting the item and tails is not (Clearly it is not a 50/50 chance, this would be a metaphorical weighted coin with a 1/10000 chance of landing on heads).

 

Maybe that metaphor is a bit too long, but anyways, I'm wondering about this. How do you calculate the probability of getting atleast 1 draconic visage out of n kills.

 

I am not talking about each kill as an individual event. If somebody kills 1000 dragons, they have a higher total probability of receiving a draconic visage than a person who has only killed the dragon once. I am not talking about increasing the chances of a drop during each individual kill. This statement pretty much sums up what I'm wondering

 

"If I killed 1000 dragons and got 1000 drops, what are the chances that atleast 1 of the drops will be a draconic visage" && "What if the number of dragons was doubled to 2000 drops, or n drops?"

 

 

P.S, Superman, you're retarded, just because there are 2 possible events doesn't mean each one has a 50/50 chance of occurring...

 

Why did this get moved, it's a math problem, I'm just using runescape as an example

 

 

 

 

New Edit: Not that anybody will ever read this, but I figured it out, and it's actually really simple math. Lets say I want to calculate the chance of getting a visage drop out of 10,000 kills. If the probability of a drop is 1/10000, then out of 10000 kills, the probability of getting a drop is 1-(probability of not getting the drop) = 1- (9999/10000)^10000 = 0.6321389.

 

So if i do 10,000 kills, then my chances of a visage drop is 63%

Edited October 5, 201312 yr by ohhungry

So I never really thought about this before, but now that I'm taking a course in probability it seems to have popped up in my mind Lets say I have a 1/10000 chance of getting a draconic visage when killing kbd. How many times would I have to kill the kbd in order to have a 50% chance of obtaining a visage.

 

Originally I would have thought, 5000 times because it's half of 10000, but that's wrong because I could then extend that logic and say if I killed the kbd 10,000 times then I would have a 100% chance of getting a visage.

 

So how exactly do you calculate something like this?

 

One does not calculate luck.

you could eaisly get 2 vissys within 500 kills; if your Youtube famous of course

You have a 50 percent change of getting a visage, on any kills. You either get it, or you don't. I know that this is not the answer you are looking for, but its true though haha.

You have a 50 percent change of getting a visage, on any kills. You either get it, or you don't. I know that this is not the answer you are looking for, but its true though haha.

 

I think I get what you're trying to say, but it's retarded either way..

So I never really thought about this before, but now that I'm taking a course in probability it seems to have popped up in my mind Lets say I have a 1/10000 chance of getting a draconic visage when killing kbd. How many times would I have to kill the kbd in order to have a 50% chance of obtaining a visage.

 

Originally I would have thought, 5000 times because it's half of 10000, but that's wrong because I could then extend that logic and say if I killed the kbd 10,000 times then I would have a 100% chance of getting a visage.

 

So how exactly do you calculate something like this?

Each time you kill it you have 1/10000 chance, so you could kill 100,000 and not get one.

You have a 50 percent change of getting a visage, on any kills. You either get it, or you don't. I know that this is not the answer you are looking for, but its true though haha.

If that was true, after killing kbd for 10 000 times, you would get 5000 visages on average. Now, lets say you have 0.01% chance to get the visage, then you would get 1 visage from 10 000 kills on AVERAGE. Calculating luck can only be done when thinking about averages, but theres no way to calculate 100% correct outcome.

Edited October 3, 201312 yr by jaajaa

you would do 1/10000 * 1/10000 *1/10000 *1/10000 *1/10000 *1/10000 *1/10000 *1/10000 *1/10000 *1/10000 *1/10000 *1/10000 *1/10000 *1/10000 *1/10000 *1/10000 *1/10000 *1/10000 *1/10000 *1/10000 *1/10000 *1/10000 *1/10000 *1/10000 *1/10000 *1/10000 *1/10000 *1/10000 *1/10000 *1/10000 *1/10000 *1/10000 *1/10000 *1/10000 *1/10000 *1/10000 *1/10000 *1/10000 *1/10000 *1/10000 *1/10000 *1/10000 *1/10000 *1/10000 *1/10000 *1/10000 (10000 times) and that's the chance of not getting one I think

 

You have a 50 percent change of getting a visage, on any kills. You either get it, or you don't. I know that this is not the answer you are looking for, but its true though haha.

If that was true, after killing kbd for 10 000 times, you would get 5000 visages on average. Now, lets say you have 0.01% chance to get the visage, then you would get 1 visage from 10 000 kills on AVERAGE. Calculating luck can only be done when thinking about averages, but theres no way to calculate 100% correct outcome.

 

-_- he's using worded terms e.g not taking into consideration the chances.. i loled

 

You have a 50 percent change of getting a visage, on any kills. You either get it, or you don't. I know that this is not the answer you are looking for, but its true though haha.

If that was true, after killing kbd for 10 000 times, you would get 5000 visages on average. Now, lets say you have 0.01% chance to get the visage, then you would get 1 visage from 10 000 kills on AVERAGE. Calculating luck can only be done when thinking about averages, but theres no way to calculate 100% correct outcome.

 

I said a 50 percent chance. Not a 50 percent drop rate. If you think about it, everything has a 50 percent change. It  happens or it doesn't. It may sound stupid but it is true. I don't see why its so hard for you to understand this? Some things you can't just calculate with math rofl.

 

 

You have a 50 percent change of getting a visage, on any kills. You either get it, or you don't. I know that this is not the answer you are looking for, but its true though haha.

If that was true, after killing kbd for 10 000 times, you would get 5000 visages on average. Now, lets say you have 0.01% chance to get the visage, then you would get 1 visage from 10 000 kills on AVERAGE. Calculating luck can only be done when thinking about averages, but theres no way to calculate 100% correct outcome.

 

I said a 50 percent chance. Not a 50 percent drop rate. If you think about it, everything has a 50 percent change. It  happens or it doesn't. It may sound stupid but it is true. I don't see why its so hard for you to understand this? Some things you can't just calculate with math rofl.

 

 

No no no no no.. just because something has 2 possible outcomes doesn't mean it's a 50/50 chance.

 

You have a 50 percent change of getting a visage, on any kills. You either get it, or you don't. I know that this is not the answer you are looking for, but its true though haha.

 

I think I get what you're trying to say, but it's retarded either way..

 

No it isn't. It makes perfect sense if you aren't stupid. Please don't use retarded as a derogatory term.

 

 

You have a 50 percent change of getting a visage, on any kills. You either get it, or you don't. I know that this is not the answer you are looking for, but its true though haha.

 

I think I get what you're trying to say, but it's retarded either way..

 

No it isn't. It makes perfect sense if you aren't stupid. Please don't use retarded as a derogatory term.

 

 

So if a person jumps off a cliff, he has a 50% chance of surviving?

 

You can't change the probability of rolling a visage by killing more...Each kill is always the same % chance. Hell, you could kill 5 in a row and get 5 visages

 

 

You have a 50 percent change of getting a visage, on any kills. You either get it, or you don't. I know that this is not the answer you are looking for, but its true though haha.

If that was true, after killing kbd for 10 000 times, you would get 5000 visages on average. Now, lets say you have 0.01% chance to get the visage, then you would get 1 visage from 10 000 kills on AVERAGE. Calculating luck can only be done when thinking about averages, but theres no way to calculate 100% correct outcome.

 

I said a 50 percent chance. Not a 50 percent drop rate. If you think about it, everything has a 50 percent change. It  happens or it doesn't. It may sound stupid but it is true. I don't see why its so hard for you to understand this? Some things you can't just calculate with math rofl.

 

10 000 kills, 5 000 drops equals to 50% chance of the item dropping on average, dumbass Having two different outcomes doesnt mean that both of those outcomes have 50% chance to occur. And as I said, you can't calculate the correct outcome of something which is based on luck. You can only make predictions of the drop chance (based on reports), and thats the only logical way to try to get the correct drop rate. 

Edited October 3, 201312 yr by jaajaa