A good theory, but here are some things to consider.
Probability is just that, the chance. You have equal chances to roll any side of a die, but it is still possible to roll a four 76 times in a row.
Moving on, let me ask you all a question. Have you ever played legit and wood cut for 10 hours straight or power mined for 10 hours straight? 99.4% of people have not. (speculation I'd bet money on)
When woodcutting, do you usually sit at the tree and wait for it to respawn, or do you go and find another tree to maintain profit and/or xp while minimizing idle time?
Someone mentioned anti-ban which is a funny thing. When I play, I hardly ever move the camera, check my xp, check my friends, or anything. I sit there and wait for my inventory to fill up, use a macro to drop all my items in 2 seconds, click the resource and begin waiting all over again. Understandably though, if all bots did this that would be a huge red flag, just saying that's how I play "legit".
To me, the biggest contributor to bans is being reported. Side note, those people that ask if you're a bot, how would you respond if you were muted... The next biggest one would be following patterns that large amounts of previously banned bots followed, and obviously having your ip flagged.
Maybe those people who make a brand new account to suicide bot and transfer whatever they made before they get banned in a day or two are the biggest contributor. I'd bet jagex let's them make it for that long to gather sufficient data on them and builds a control pattern to compare other suspected bots to. If they fit, they get a ban.