So it has come to my attention that some people (Gh0st) need a math lesson. So here's the proposition:

 

If I know the drop rate of an item from a monster, I can then calculate how many kills I need to get in order to have a specific chance of obtaining a drop.

 

Therefore if I want to get a draconic visage, and I know the drop rate, I can then calculate my chances of receiving one after X amount of kills.

 

So lets assume the chances of getting a drop is 1/8000 for each kill.

 

My chances of not getting a visage are therefore 7999/8000

 

Now, what are my chances of not getting a visage in 2 kills? This would be (7999/8000)^2. My chances of not getting one after 3 kills? ( 7999/8000)^3

 

For those who don't know what this ^ symbol is, that is an exponent symbol, or power. So (7999/8000)^2 means (7999/8000) to the exponent 2.

 

We can then generalize that my chances of not getting a visage over X amount of kills is (7999/8000)^X.

 

The chances of my getting a visage are then 1-(7999/8000)^X for any X amount of kills.

 

So as an example, if I kill 5000 dragons, then my chances of getting a visage are 1-(7999/8000)^5000 = 0.464769481

 

So about 46%. This means that there is a 46% chance that somewhere between my first kill, and 5000th kill, there will be a visage drop.

 

Now you can all go and figure out how many times you will have to kill a monster to have whatever chance of getting that item, instead of everybody telling you "There is no chance, it's just random" (WTF IS THIS!?!?!?!?!?!?!)

 

Notes: You are not calculating your chance of getting the item on a specific drop. You are calculating your chance of getting a drop out of X amount of kills. So out of 5000 kils, what are the chances at atleast 1 of them will contain the dropped item.

Edited October 5, 201312 yr by ohhungry

totally wrong

its 1/6500 per kill for example

 

and its like that every killl which means u might have 10k kills and u still dont get it

totally wrong

its 1/6500 per kill for example

 

and its like that every killl which means u might have 10k kills and u still dont get it

 

 

Ok, so lets say its 1/6500. If you kill it 10k times, your chances of receiving it is 1-(6499/6500)^10000 = 0.785314, which is about 78.5%. That means that there is a 21.5% chance that you do not recieve a visage in 10k kills

How have I not found anybody that actually agrees with this...

I didn't get it at first but he explained it. Makes sense.

oh god i remember viewing this thread a few dags ago, who woulda knew it would boil into this LOL......mmmm damn visages, lets just stick with very rare

Do people not understand basic statistics?

Some of them dont.

This is like the first thing you are taught in a stats class.

Double post

Edited October 5, 201312 yr by Solar Virus

If anyone doesnt agree with this, then their opinion probably doesnt matter anyway because they dont have enough knowledge to understand and execute basic calculations, therefore their input in invalid. Lol

Not every school requires stats so assuming that everyone should know basic statistics is somewhat dickish lol. The only reason I remotely understood his calculations was bc I just took a course.

hang on mate, so if i don't kill any metal dragons then x=0.

By your formula, the probability would be raised to the power 0.

i.e. (1/5000)^0

 

anything to the power of 0 equals 1, therefore it means that there's a 100% chance of getting a visage drop without killing a visage dropping monster.

 

I have made 22 accounts,  all of which have not slain a monster which can drop a visage, and I am yet to see the visage in my bank or inventory.

This proves that your formula and understanding of math is flawed.

 

i think you're the one that needs help with math

 

 

hang on mate, so if i don't kill any metal dragons then x=0.

By your formula, the probability would be raised to the power 0.

i.e. (1/5000)^0

 

anything to the power of 0 equals 1, therefore it means that there's a 100% chance of getting a visage drop without killing a visage dropping monster.

 

I have made 22 accounts,  all of which have not slain a monster which can drop a visage, and I am yet to see the visage in my bank or inventory.

This proves that your formula and understanding of math is flawed.

 

i think you're the one that needs help with math

 

Nice try...

 

What you are showing is the chance of not receiving the drop (note, you should have written (4999/5000)^0, instead of (1/5000)^0.

 

The chances of receiving the drop is 1 - (Probability of not getting the drop), or 1 - (4999/5000)^X, where X is the number of kills you make. So if you make 0 kills, your chance of receiving the drop is then 1 - (4999/5000)^0 = 0.

 

hang on mate, so if i don't kill any metal dragons then x=0.

By your formula, the probability would be raised to the power 0.

i.e. (1/5000)^0

 

anything to the power of 0 equals 1, therefore it means that there's a 100% chance of getting a visage drop without killing a visage dropping monster.

 

I have made 22 accounts,  all of which have not slain a monster which can drop a visage, and I am yet to see the visage in my bank or inventory.

This proves that your formula and understanding of math is flawed.

 

i think you're the one that needs help with math

 

Nice try...

 

What you are showing is the chance of not receiving the drop (note, you should have written (4999/5000)^0, instead of (1/5000)^0.

 

The chances of receiving the drop is 1 - (Probability of not getting the drop), or 1 - (4999/5000)^X, where X is the number of kills you make. So if you make 0 kills, your chance of receiving the drop is then 1 - (4999/5000)^0 = 0.

 

 

so my 22 accounts was a waste of money?